The Week ahead 29 March- 02 April 2021

Posted by Lulama Msungwa -
Scope Markets

The Week ahead 29 March- 02 April 2021

KEY POINTS

  • The markets are quiet in the week ahead due to the Easter holiday and U.S jobs data will be key
  • The OPEC and non-OPEC meeting will be key to the Oil demand that has underperformed recently
  • Technical outlook

WEEK AHEAD;

U.S Dollar

The U.S markets are set to have a very busy week ahead; the Non-farm payroll report is in focus and President Joe Biden’s speech will be the most-watched in the market as the U.S prepares for economic recovery.

The investors will have to wait until Wednesday for volatility from the economic events that could provide the markets with possible impact. President Joe Biden’s speech will be key to the market as he is set to unveil an infrastructure plan in the city where he started his 2020 presidential campaign. Investors will also wait to hear remarks on the economic recovery, the labor market recovery, and the massive coronavirus vaccine rollout.

The markets will then shift their focus to the ADP employment report and the report will be a key to the market’s movement as the labor market data is key to the country’s economic performance and the U.S markets movement. The recent weekly claims have shown a positive out of the labor market and show how much the small businesses are bouncing back. The ADP report is expected to show positivity after last month’s disappointing data.

Traders will then put their focus on the ISM manufacturing data and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. The PMI will be a key event as the report will set to provide an out of the manufacturing sector which has shown an approvement. Later the focus will shift to the weekly jobless claims and investors will hope for a further decline in the number of people filing for employment as the labor market sees a slight recovery with the economy opening up.

Friday will be a big day for the U.S markets as the Non-farm payroll report will provide the full outlook of employment in America. The jobs report will be the key news for the quiet easter week ahead. The unemployment data is expected to slip from 6.3% to 6.1% showing an improvement in the labor market.

Euro;

It’s quiet easter week for the Euro with no central bank speakers expected and no major economic event to provide the market with a volatile direction.

Traders will have to wait until Wednesday for the consumer price index. We expect the figures to remain steady as the Eurozone still battles the coronavirus and the expected third wave placing most countries into Easter lockdown.

On Thursday, the retail data from Germany will be key to the Euro markets movement. After a massive decline in the January data, the markets will hope for a slight pickup in February as most businesses look to operate throughout the lockdown period.

Pounds;

It’s relatively quiet in the easter week for the Pounds with the economic calendar quiet in terms of the major economic events.

Traders will have to wait until Wednesday for the GDP data although the Pounds will not have much participation due to the Easter holiday.

Aussie;

The Aussie is set to have a set easter week in the markets with trading activities expected to be quiet due to the Good Friday holiday.

Traders will focus on the retail sales data and trade balance report on Thursday. The market will experience a quiet session as traders will be off to enjoy the Easter Holiday.

Other markets

  • The vaccine intake in the Eurozone as EUR investors grow frustrated due to the slow pace rollout of the vaccine and the Eurozone falling behind U.K and U.S.A
  • The OPEC and non-OPEC members will hold a meeting on the 1st of April as Oil demand comes under pressure after European countries reintroduced lockdowns.
  • The demand pickup on the crude oil could provide some gains to the oil-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar in the week ahead

Technical outlook

AUD/NZD 20 March 2021 Scope Markets

AUDNZD;

The Aussie has been under pressure in recent weeks against major currencies but has managed to upbeat the Kiwi as it continues its bullish rally 1,80 level. A further rally to the August 2020 high could be a sign of extended gains on the AUDNZD. The resistance level at 1,10 will be the most eyed area for more gains and should the market breakup the level, a new high could be created.

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